Monthly Market Update – March 2024
Inflation & consumer spending In February, the US experienced a slight acceleration in inflation, with year-over-year prices growing by 3.2%, a bit more than expected, and marking a modest increase from January’s 3.1% rise(1). The acceleration in monthly prices was largely caused by rising gas and shelter costs, which together accounted for over 60% of […]
Monthly Market Update – February 2024
Labor market, CPI and the Feds The jobs market continues to show remarkable resilience. In January, there were 353,000 new jobs added, the largest increase in one year(1). Wages also grew by 0.6%, giving consumers a boost in their inflation-adjusted spending power. Treasury yields surged immediately following the strong job report, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s […]
Monthly Market Update – January 2024
Jobs, Inflation and the Federal Reserve Jobs, inflation, and expectations around what the Federal Reserve may or may not do continue to be the focus of markets as 2024 begins. The latest jobs report showed December exceeded most economists’ expectations, with the economy adding 216,000 jobs(1), surpassing estimates by 41,000(2). Further, wages rose more than […]
Monthly Market Update – December 2023
The Delicate Balance: interest rates, labor market and consumer sentiment In their final meeting of 2023, the Federal Reserve signaled a dovish pivot by updating their interest rate projections, indicating multiple rate cuts for both next year and 2025(1). The updated forecast suggests a lower path for the federal funds rate, with the Federal Reserve […]
Monthly Market Update – November 2023
Inflation slowing In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed inflation was flat on a monthly basis, slowing considerably from the 0.4% increase in prices in September(1). The yearly increase of 3.2% was helped by falling gas prices, which fell 5%, though food prices continue to increase. If gas prices continue to fall, then November’s […]
Monthly Market Update – September 2023
Inflation: Surging energy and gas prices Despite recent optimism about declining inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded its largest monthly increase this year, up 0.6% in August(1). On an annual basis, prices rose 3.7%, compared to 3.2% in July(1). Core inflation, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% in August, marking […]
May 2023 Market Update
Inflation, Employment Data, and Interest Rates The inflation report for April indicated the Consumer Price Index (CPI) may not be falling quickly enough to support the current market expectations of significant interest rate cuts by the end of the year. Bloomberg Economics suggests that the Federal Reserve is now prioritizing credit indicators and is likely […]
April 2023 Market Update
The Economy and Labor Market Consumers are the largest and most important part of the US economy, and their ability to drive it has been critical over the last year or so. Sentiment data has shown pessimistic views of the economy, but the tight jobs market has been a key point of the consumers’ resilience […]
February 2023 Market Update
It’s raining data! The American consumer continues to enjoy considerable winds at their back from a tight labor market. In January, businesses dramatically surprised markets by adding 517,000 jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 3.4%(3), the lowest since the late 1960s. There have been many headlines of large layoffs, but so far they have not […]
December 2022 Market Update
Cooling Inflation and strong labor market In its last meeting of the year, the Federal Reserve raised rates by another 50 basis points, bringing the target policy rate to 4.25%-4.5%, up from 0%-0.25% at the start of this year. The meeting followed a better-than-expected inflation report that showed that both yearly headline and core inflation […]
